Retirement Savings Shortfalls

Abstract

An article in the Spring 2014 issue of The Journal of Retirement focused on the probability that households will not run short of money in retirement. This article expands the earlier analysis by analyzing the size of the deficits that retired households are simulated to incur. These retirement savings shortfalls (RSSs) are reported by age cohorts, marital status, gender, and years of future eligibility for defined contribution plan participation. The results demonstrate the extreme importance of longevity risk and nursing home and home health care costs in simulating RSSs. Analysis of the potential of a generic auto-IRA proposal to decrease retirement deficits is also included. The baseline aggregate national retirement deficit number is estimated to be $4.13 trillion for all U.S. households whose heads are between ages 25 and 64, inclusive. This value decreases to $3.86 trillion with auto-IRAs and no opt outs.